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☆ Canada to add spending for housing amid slow growth and high debt payments
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Canada's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland attends the Canada-CARICOM Summit in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada October 18, 2023. Housing Minister Sean Fraser on Monday confirmed the government is considering such a measure. Many Canadians are dealing with higher living costs and housing affordability has emerged as the main criticism against the government. Freeland has promised to use the FES to try to boost housing supply and to help Canadians struggling with inflation. The Bank of Canada hiked rates to a 22-year high of 5.00% between March of last year and July of this year.

Persons: Finance Chrystia Freeland, Blair Gable, Chrystia Freeland, Justin Trudeau's, Freeland, Derek Holt, Holt, Sean Fraser, Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre, Steve Scherer, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Finance, Canada, CARICOM, REUTERS, OTTAWA, Canada Finance, Justin Trudeau's Liberal, Scotiabank, Canadian Broadcasting Corp, Toronto Star, Housing, Monday, Conservative, Bank of Canada, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada, FES, United States, Ottawa

☆ Instant View: Canada gains 17,500 jobs in October, jobless rate rises to 5.7%
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

TORONTO, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Canada's economy gained a net 17,500 jobs in October, entirely in part-time work, and the jobless rate rose to 5.7%, Statistics Canada data showed on Friday. Employment in the goods producing sector grew by a net 7,500 jobs, largely in construction. STORIES:MARKET REACTION: CAD/LINK: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231103/dq231103a-eng.htm?HPA=1COMMENTSDEREK HOLT, VICE PRESIDENT OF CAPITAL MARKETS ECONOMICS AT SCOTIABANK:"So most of the jobs were part time. In terms of Bank of Canada, we got another set of jobs numbers before their next decision and a lot more data before the December meeting. You'd really need to see some strong holiday shopping and end of year activity in order to get a beat on Q4."

Persons: DEREK HOLT, you've, Steve Scherer, Denny Thomas Organizations: TORONTO, Statistics, ECONOMICS, SCOTIABANK, Bank of Canada, Thomson Locations: Statistics Canada, it's

☆ VIEW Canada's annual inflation cools in September
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TORONTO, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate edged down to 3.8% in September on broad-based price reductions for some travel-related services, durable goods and groceries, Statistics Canada said on Tuesday. This beat analysts' expectations for annual inflation to remain at 4.0%. "It's pretty clear that (the central bank) won't be raising rates in my opinion in October. I think if we had gotten another inflation print like August in September - that was the big risk to have another hike. DEREK HOLT, VICE PRESIDENT OF CAPITAL MARKETS ECONOMICS AT SCOTIABANK"I think on a trend basis, the Bank of Canada is behind the inflation wage cycles.

Persons: CLAIRE FAN, MICHAEL GREENBERG, FRANKLIN TEMPLETON, JULES BOUDREAU, MACKENZIE, There's, They'll, DEREK HOLT, Divya Rajagopal, Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith, Denny Thomas Organizations: TORONTO, Statistics, ROYAL BANK, CANADA, Bank of Canada, Business Outlook Survey, ECONOMICS, SCOTIABANK, Thomson Locations: Statistics Canada

REUTERS/Carlos Osorio/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOTTAWA, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate unexpectedly slowed to 3.8% in September and underlying core measures also eased, data showed on Tuesday, prompting markets and analysts to trim bets for another interest rate hike next week. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast inflation to hold steady at the 4.0% rate recorded in August. Two of the Bank of Canada's (BoC's) three core measures of underlying inflation also decelerated. Money markets trimmed bets for a rate hike next week after the data. "There's no need for further rate hikes in Canada," Reitzes said.

Persons: Carlos Osorio, Jules Boudreau, stoking, Benjamin Reitzes, Reitzes, Statscan, Derek Holt, Macklem, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Dale Smith, Fergal Smith, Divya Rajagopal, Jonathan Oatis, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, Rights OTTAWA, Reuters, Statistics, Mackenzie Investments, Bank of Canada's, Bank of Canada, BoC, BMO Capital Markets, Scotiabank . Bank of Canada, Thomson Locations: Toronto , Ontario, Canada, Statistics Canada, Mackenzie, Ottawa, Toronto

The jobless rate stayed at 5.5% for a third consecutive month, Statistics Canada said. Wage growth is also beating market expectations," said Michael Greenberg, a portfolio manager for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. "Despite the aggressive rate hikes by the Bank of Canada, clearly demand remains strong and companies continue to hire. Money markets increased bets for a rate increase later this month after the jobs figures were published. With September's robust gains, the economy is averaging 30,000 monthly employment growth this year, up from 25,000 a month earlier.

Persons: Carlos Osorio, Michael Greenberg, Greenberg, Derek Holt, Holt, haven't, they've, we're, Statscan, Ismail Shakil, Nivedita Balu, Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith, Dale Smith, Mark Porter Organizations: Queen, West, REUTERS, Rights OTTAWA, Statistics, Reuters, Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, Bank of Canada, Scotiabank, Thomson Locations: Toronto Ontario, Canada, Statistics Canada, U.S, Ottawa

The Canadian central bank had expected productivity, or output per hour worked, to improve as the economy recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead, it has fallen in eleven of the last 12 quarters, taking it back to its 2016 level. It also stands to add to unit labor costs, a key measure of inflation pressures coming from higher wages. "Our own forecast is that productivity growth will turn around, but that is a risk to the outlook and if productivity growth continues declining it will make it more difficult to get inflation back to target," Macklem said. The central bank has forecast that inflation will return to its 2% target in the middle of 2025.

Persons: Macklem, Derek Holt, tightens, Holt, Dennis Darby, Doug Porter, Fergal Smith, Steve Scherer, Deepa Babington Organizations: Bank of Canada, Reuters Graphics Reuters, BoC, Scotiabank, Federal Reserve, Canadian Manufacturers, Fraser Institute, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Canadian, Canada, freefall, United States, Toronto, Ottawa

Two of the three core inflation measures also rose. The annual rate, the highest since the 4.4% reported in April, is double the Bank of Canada's 2% target. "Underlying inflation is still well above the level that would be consistent with achieving our target of 2% CPI inflation," she said. Money markets raised bets for a rate hike in October after the data, seeing a 42% chance of an increase after the price figures compared with 23% before. However, another inflation report and a bevy of other data are due out before the Canadian central bank next meets on Oct 25 to set the key overnight rate.

Persons: Derek Holt, Holt, Sharon Kozicki, Jimmy Jean, Justin Trudeau's, Andrew Grantham, David Ljunggren, Steve Scherer, Dale Smith, Fergal Smith, Divya Rajogopal, Paul Simao, Mark Porter Organizations: Reuters, Statistics, Bank of Canada's, Scotiabank, Bank of, Bank of Canada, Canadian, Desjardins Group, CIBC Capital Markets, Tiff, Thomson Locations: OTTAWA, Statistics Canada, Canadian

TORONTO, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Canada's plan to bring down food prices by tightening regulation could backfire and fail, raising the cost of doing business in the country without providing relief to consumers, lawyers and economists said. Canada's weak competition law has been long blamed for allowing a few players to dominate industries ranging from banks to telecoms and groceries. The proposed amendment will drop the so-called efficiencies defense provision, giving Canada's antitrust regulator - the Competition Bureau - the power to block deals it deems as increasing market concentration, irrespective of any cost efficiencies. Trudeau's move comes as many Canadians reel under an affordability crisis with food prices jumping 25% since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Food inflation stood at around 35% in Germany and the United Kingdom - well above the 25% level of food inflation in Canada since the start of the pandemic, Scotiabank research showed.

Persons: Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre, Omar Wakil, Torys, Wakil, Derek Holt, Denny Thomas, Deepa Babington Organizations: Competition, Liberal, Conservative, Loblaw Co, Co, Metro Inc, Scotiabank, Antitrust, Rogers Communications, Shaw Communications, Thomson Locations: Canada, Ukraine, Germany, United Kingdom

Canada created 39,900 jobs, Statistics Canada said, compared with a median forecast for a gain of 15,000. The labor market has been resilient even as the Bank of Canada (BoC) raised its key overnight rate 10 times since March 2022 to cool the economy. Money markets see a 44% chance of another BoC rate hike by year-end, up from 36% before the data were published. "This report alone won't make the Bank of Canada regret holding rates steady earlier this week. Derek Holt, vice president of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, noted a gain of 49,500 people in self-employed jobs.

Persons: Carlos Osorio, Andrew Kelvin, Royce Mendes, Derek Holt, Dale Smith, Fergal Smith, Andrea Ricci, Nick Macfie Organizations: Queen, West, REUTERS, Rights, Statistics, Bank of Canada, BoC, TD Securities, Desjardins Group, Canadian, Scotiabank, Thomson Locations: Toronto Ontario, Canada, Statistics Canada, Canadian, Ottawa, Toronto

☆ Canada finance minister defends central bank independence after rate comment
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsSept 6 (Reuters) - Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland defended the central bank's independence on Wednesday after her comments welcoming the Bank of Canada's decision not to increase its key interest rate raised concerns to the contrary. In a widely expected decision, the Bank of Canada held interest rates steady at a 22-year high of 5%. It is rare for Canadian government ministers to publicly back or criticize central bank policies. Like many developed economies, the Bank of Canada makes its monetary policy decisions independent of the federal government. In June, when the central bank raised rates for the first time after a four-month pause, Freeland stressed that she respected the independence of the central bank, a sentiment she repeated in a press conference later in the day.

Persons: Thomas White, Chrystia Freeland, Freeland, Derek Holt, Pierre Poilievre, Justin Trudeau's, Steve Scherer, David Ljunggren, Denny Thomas, Leslie Adler Organizations: Canadian Finance, Bank of, Bank of Canada, Conservative, Liberal, Ontario, Thomson Locations: Canada, Bank of Nova Scotia, British Columbia, Ottawa

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem takes part in a news conference after announcing an interest rate decision in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada April 12, 2023. REUTERS/Blair Gable/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOTTAWA, Sept 6 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada on Wednesday is expected to keep rates on hold at a 22-year high of 5% after the economy unexpectedly shrank in the second quarter, analysts said. While the economy turned negative in the second quarter, inflation has been stubborn, unexpectedly rising to 3.3% in July as core measures remained well above 3%. Canada's Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's support has sagged amid high inflation as his Conservative rival, Pierre Poilievre, hammered him for feeding inflation with government spending and driving up rates during a housing crisis. But core inflation measures are inching down slowly, and a wealth of data is due out before the bank next meets to discuss rates in October.

Persons: Blair Gable, Derek Holt, Justin Trudeau's, Pierre Poilievre, Tiago Figueiredo, Holt, Steve Scherer, Mark Porter Organizations: Canada, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Canada, of Canada, Scotiabank, Canada's Liberal, Conservative, Bank of Canada's, Desjardins Group, Reuters, BoC, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast inflation would rise to 3.0% from the 27-month low of 2.8% recorded in June. Money markets increased bets for a quarter-percentage-point rate hike in September. They saw a 35% probability immediately after the release of the inflation data, up from 22% beforehand, and then settled back to a 31% chance. Not all economists thought the stronger-than-expected price data would tip the scales toward a hike as soon as its next meeting in September. The Bank of Canada, after its last rate hike in July, said it would study data closely before moving again.

Persons: Carlos Osorio, Statscan, Derek Holt, Tiago Figueiredo, Jules Boudreau, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Dale Smith, Paul Simao, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, OTTAWA, Reuters, Statistics, Bank of, Scotiabank, Canadian, Bank of Canada, Desjardins Group, Mackenzie Investments, Thomson Locations: Toronto , Ontario, Canada, Statistics Canada, Mackenzie, Ottawa

Macklem came under a rare attack last year from opposition politicians for misjudging inflation and locking in to a rigid forward guidance. "We are turning the corner on inflation," Macklem told reporters in January when the BoC became the first major central bank to announce a pause. The central bank's tightening campaign is a major concern for Canadians who loaded up on cheap mortgages and took on credit card and other debt in recent years. "Now maybe you're getting a certain maturity of the central bank that says, 'We're not going to do that again,'" Holt said. He assured Canadians during the pandemic that rates would rise only in 2023 when it expected the economic slack to be absorbed, but the central bank began hiking rates in March 2022 as inflation spiked.

Persons: Derek Holt, Macklem, Holt, Marc Chandler, Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith, Denny Thomas, Matthew Lewis Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, BoC, Scotiabank ., Canadian Real Estate Association, Bannockburn Global Forex, Thomson Locations: Bannockburn, Ottawa, Toronto

After a five-month pause, the BoC raised its overnight rate in June, saying monetary policy was not sufficiently restrictive. "If new information suggests we need to do more, we are prepared to increase our policy rate further," BoC Governor Tiff Macklem told reporters after the decision. The BoC's overnight target rate was last at 5.00% in March and April of 2001. Twenty of 24 economists surveyed by Reuters had expected the central bank to lift rates by a quarter of a percentage point. Money markets had seen a more than a 70% chance of a rate hike before the announcement.

Persons: Derek Holt, Andrew Kelvin, Steve Scherer, Ismail Shakil, Fergal Smith, Divya Rajogopal, Nivedita Balu, Paul Simao, Mark Porter Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, Wednesday, BoC, Scotiabank, Reuters, TD Securities, Thomson Locations: Canada, Toronto

OTTAWA, July 7 (Reuters) - Canada's economy added far more jobs than expected in June, data showed on Friday, a result analysts said probably seals the deal for another Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate hike next week. The unemployment rate in June increased for the second consecutive month and is now at its highest level since February 2022, though still below a pre-pandemic 12-month average, Statscan said. The June jobs report is the last major economic figure to be released before the BoC's rate announcement on Wednesday. Growth has remained resilient despite nine rate increases totaling 450 basis points since March of last year. The net jobs addition in June, the largest since January, were driven by full-time work.

Persons: Jobs, Statscan, Derek Holt, Royce Mendes, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Dale Smith, Emelia Sithole, Mark Porter Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, BoC, Statistics, Scotiabank, Desjardins Group, Reuters, Canadian, Employment, Thomson Locations: Statistics Canada, Ottawa

OTTAWA, June 7 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada on Wednesday hiked its overnight rate to a 22-year high of 4.75%, and markets and analysts immediately forecast yet another increase next month to ratchet down an overheating economy and stubbornly high inflation. Noting an uptick in inflation in April and the fact that three-month measures of core inflation remained high, the Bank of Canada (BoC) said that "concerns have increased that CPI inflation could get stuck materially above the 2% target." However, Canada Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said the economic rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been stoking price increases. "To bring demand lower, which is the bank's goal to achieve their 2% inflation target, we just simply need more tightening." The BoC said it would continue to assess economic indicators going forward to see if they "are consistent with achieving the inflation target."

Persons: Derek Holt, Paul Beaudry, Canada's, Pierre Poilievre, Justin Trudeau, Chrystia Freeland, Andrew Kelvin, Steve Scherer, David Ljunggren, Fergal Smith, Divya Rajagopal, Nivedita Balu, Mark Porter Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, Wednesday, Canadian, Scotiabank, BoC, Conservative Party, Liberal, Canada Finance, TD Securities, Thomson Locations: British Columbia, Ukraine, Canada, Toronto

OTTAWA, May 16 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate rose in April for the first time in 10 months, data showed on Tuesday, adding pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates again after having paused its tightening campaign since January. Annual inflation unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in April, Statistics Canada said. Higher rent and mortgage interest costs contributed the most to the annual inflation rate in April, Statscan said. The higher interest rate environment may have contributed to rising rents by stimulating higher rental demand, the agency said. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 4.4% compared with a rise of 4.5% in March.

BENGALURU, April 6(Reuters) - The Bank of Canada will keep its key interest rate steady at 4.50% through 2023, according to most economists polled by Reuters, with an even smaller minority now expecting an interest rate cut by year-end than a poll taken a month ago. In March, the BoC was the first major central bank to stop its aggressive hiking cycle and is on what it calls a conditional pause. So all 33 economists polled March 31-April 6 said it will hold its overnight rate at 4.50% on April 12. A majority of forecasters, 23 of 31, said the rate would remain unchanged for the rest of 2023. Only seven expected at least one 25-basis-point rate cut by end-year, down from 13 in a survey taken about a month ago.

☆ VIEW Canada's economy unexpectedly stalled in Q4; January rebound likely
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TORONTO, Feb 28 (Reuters) - The Canadian economy recorded no growth in the final three months of 2022, massively underperforming expectations, though economic activity likely rebounded with a 0.3% increase in January, Statistics Canada data showed on Tuesday. "Even with the January rebound, however, Q4 and Q1 combined seem likely to average slightly below the Bank of Canada's prior forecasts which supports the current pause in terms of interest rates." It'll be a short and sweet statement saying that they're still on a conditional hold and evaluating the lagging effects. They'll want to see a whole lot more data before they're convinced that they're either done and/or that they're going to act again." ROBERT BOTH, MACRO STRATEGIST, TD SECURITIES"It is a pretty large miss on Q4.

The jobless rate held steady at 5%, which is just a decimal point higher than the record low, Statistics Canada (Statscan) said. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a net gain of 15,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to edge up to 5.1% in January. "However, that won't stop markets reacting to today's strong data by pricing in a greater probability of further hikes, and pricing out rate cuts," he said. Before the jobs numbers, markets had been betting that the Bank of Canada's next move would be to cut rates. When he announced a pause on rates, Governor Tiff Macklem said it was "conditional" and did not rule out further increases.

That prompted the central bank to pause its most aggressive tightening cycle for now, becoming the first major central bank to do so. Traders have already bid up Canadian stocks and the Canadian dollar , dubbed a 'commodity currency', since the news of China reopening surfaced in December. Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said that for Canada, China's reopening is more a "clear-cut positive" than it would be for other countries with fewer commodities exports. The U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have since laid the groundwork for a pause as well. Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay said China's reopening will help put a floor under global price levels, potentially offsetting demand destruction as economies slow.

☆ 'P.R. job' or antidote to 'groupthink'? Bank of Canada to offer policy-meeting minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-22 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Annual inflation shot to 8.1% in June, the highest in 39 years and four times the Bank of Canada's 2% target. On the recommendation of the International Monetary Fund, the BoC in September said it would release minutes to improve transparency,Other central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank already provide some form of record of their meetings. "The big enemy for policymakers and investors is groupthink," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC. JOB'Other market-watchers say releasing minutes is more an exercise in public relations than an effort to boost transparency. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReporting by Steve Scherer, additional reporting by Fergal Smith, editing by Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

OTTAWA, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 6.8% in November as gasoline price rose more slowly, data showed on Wednesday, leaving the door open for another interest rate increase in January. Consumer prices rose 0.1% from October, Statistics Canada said, above analysts' expectations they would be flat. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 5.4% versus a 5.3% gain in October. "Today's data will leave the door open to a 25 basis point rate hike in November," said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group. Gasoline prices rose 13.7% after gaining 17.8% in October, largely driven by price declines in Western Canada, Statscan said.

The central bank sets short-term interest rates but longer-term borrowing costs, such as for businesses and some mortgage rates, are determined by the bond market. Canadian bond yields, like U.S. bond yields, have tumbled since October as investors anticipate that the tightening cycle is nearing an end and the central bank is poised to shift to cutting rates next year. Bond yields, along with other measures, such as the strength of the stock market and the currency, help determine financial conditions, or the availability of funding in the economy. Since October, Canada's 5-year yield has tumbled nearly 100 basis points and the Toronto stock market (.GSPTSE) has rallied 11%. "Otherwise, we could be on an inflation and rates roller-coaster for years to come that is biased toward higher average inflation."

Instead, "the onus is still squarely, fully, 100% on the Bank of Canada to tighten," he said. The BoC's policy rate is seen peaking at 4.5% in early 2023. "I think they're going to struggle to see any improvement in the coming fiscal year," said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, adding that the fiscal measures were working at a slight crosscurrent to monetary policy. The fact that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government depends on the left-leaning New Democrats to pass legislation like the fiscal update helps explain the new spending, said Jimmy Jean, chief economist at Desjardins. ($1 = 1.3499 Canadian dollars)Reporting by Steve Scherer; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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